On 5 February, INCIPE held the virtual session "The War in Ukraine May Be Nearing Its End," which offered a detailed analysis of the current situation four years after the start of Russia's full-scale aggression, in a context marked by profound suffering and destruction and by thousands of casualties on European soil. The keynote was delivered by Col. (Ret.) Jos茅 Pardo de Santayana y G贸mez de Olea, Vice President of the Royal University Institute for European Studies at San Pablo CEU University, who provided a comprehensive review of the evolution of the conflict and its strategic and military implications.
Jos茅 Pardo de Santayana comes from a family with a long military tradition and has an extensive professional career in both the military and academic spheres. A retired colonel of the Spanish Army, he is Vice President of the Royal University Institute for European Studies at San Pablo CEU University, associate professor at the Center for Advanced National Defense Studies (CESEDEN), member of the Academy of Military Sciences and Arts, and President of the Fundaci贸n Tom谩s Moro. He has served as a senior analyst at the Spanish Institute for Strategic Studies and has held prominent international postings, taking part in six missions abroad, which allows him to offer an expert perspective on the military course of the war in Ukraine.
The session opened with a reminder of the war's international impact. The European Union has condemned Russia's aggression as a flagrant violation of the United Nations Charter and has reiterated its political support for Ukraine's independence, sovereignty, and territorial integrity, as well as its financial, humanitarian, military, and diplomatic backing. NATO, for its part, has prioritized support for Ukraine from the outset, as the Alliance's Secretary General, Mark Rutte, recently emphasized before the Verkhovna Rada in Kyiv.
In his remarks, Col. (Ret.) Pardo de Santayana offered a detailed perspective on the military dynamics of the conflict. He noted that, although some progress has been made in peace talks, Russia retains a military advantage owing to its demographic, industrial, and strategic superiority, combined with the international context, the economic and diplomatic backing of countries of the Global South and of China, and the United States' growing focus on other fronts. He also highlighted the importance of the nuclear factor, recalling the CIA assessment carried out in late 2022, which has shaped military strategy and arms deliveries to Ukraine.
Pardo de Santayana explained how, following the initial Russian invasion and Ukraine's surprising resistance, a prolonged war of attrition has unfolded, with distinct phases in which the initiative has shifted between the two sides. He outlined the Ukrainian offensives, international support in the form of heavy weaponry (including HIMARS systems), and Russia's strategy of consolidation and attrition, with deep strikes on energy infrastructure and logistical targets. He also addressed the strategic dimension of the war, which combines military, economic, and morale factors, and pointed to the difficulty of reaching a lasting peace agreement given the existential threat that Moscow attributes to the expansion of NATO and the European Union.
Pardo de Santayana also reviewed the factors that condition Ukraine's capacity to sustain the war: demographic constraints and the ageing of the mobilizable population, Russia's economic and military resilience, and morale on both sides. He concluded that, although a near end cannot be ruled out, the war continues for the time being under the logic of attrition, and that the resolution of the conflict will depend on whether a negotiated agreement brokered by the United States is reached or one of the parties collapses, with Ukraine apparently being the weaker side.
The session, which included a discussion segment in which attendees could put their questions live through the YouTube chat, allowed participants to explore specific aspects of Russian strategy, the phases of the Ukrainian offensives, the resilience of the population, and the role of international allies.
Aranzazu 脕lvarez