The session revolved around a fundamental question: what is China’s position on the Middle East conflict, and what consequences does it hold for the international order? To address these questions, INCIPE welcomed two diplomats with extensive experience in China. Manuel Valencia has had a long career at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs, where he served, among other posts, as Director General of International Economic Relations, as well as in the private sector, as Vice President of T\u00e9cnicas Reunidas Internacional and co-chair of the Spanish-Chinese Business Committee, among other roles. He is also a board member (patrono) of INCIPE, an accomplished painter, and the author of travel books. Rafael Dezcallar holds a law degree and a master’s in Political Science from Stanford University. He has served as ambassador to Ethiopia, Germany, and China, Deputy Director General for the United Nations, and Director General of Foreign Policy at the Ministry of Foreign Affairs. The author of four geopolitical essays on Europe, the Middle East, and China, as well as two novels, he currently chairs the board of Ayuda en Acci\u00f3n and is a member of the Spanish chapter of the Club of Rome.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
In his remarks, Manuel Valencia offered an analysis of the conflict in the Persian Gulf and the role China is playing in it. He noted that this is not a classic Gulf war like that of 1991, but a regional and maritime conflict among Iran, the United States, and Israel, in an area of enormous economic significance through which 20% of the world’s oil trade passes. China is the leading buyer of Iranian crude and Iran’s largest trading partner, giving it a direct interest in the region’s stability. Its official stance favors de-escalation and respect for international law, and while its support for Tehran exists, it is indirect and carefully calibrated so as not to jeopardize its relations with other regional powers such as Saudi Arabia, the UAE, or Iraq.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
What stands out, Valencia observed, is that China is gaining influence in the region precisely through its restraint. It is perceived as a predictable power, and its logic is commercial rather than military, which makes it attractive to Gulf countries. On a broader level, Valencia reflected on something he considers key to understanding China: it is not simply a country, but a civilization with four thousand years of history that does not wish to follow Western rules, but rather to participate on its own terms. He also noted that the economic and financial interdependence between Beijing and Washington runs so deep that it makes any real rupture between the two powers highly unlikely.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
For his part, Rafael Dezcallar began with a historical reflection to explain China’s foreign policy strategy. He recalled that China remained closed to the world for centuries and only opened up following Deng Xiaoping’s reforms in the 1970s. That history, Dezcallar noted, accounts for an insecurity that still shapes its foreign policy today, particularly in political and military matters. From this stems the paradox that defines its presence in the Middle East: enormous economic influence\u2014half its oil comes from the Gulf, it has invested in infrastructure in Saudi Arabia and technology in the UAE, and it mediated the 2023 reconciliation between Iran and Saudi Arabia\u2014set against a very limited political presence.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Rafael Dezcallar stressed that China’s inaction in the face of the attack on Iran weakens its position in the region in the short term, since Gulf countries still depend on the United States to guarantee their security. In the long term, however, Beijing calculates that a poorly conceived war on Washington’s part, with an uncertain outcome, reinforces its narrative of Western decline and Eastern ascent. On trade, he noted that China’s share of global GDP rose from 5% to 18% since its entry into the WTO in 2001, while the European Union ran up a 359-billion-dollar deficit with Beijing last year. In his view, this calls for a much firmer European stance on trade reciprocity.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
On relations with Russia, Dezcallar described an alliance sustained by the existence of a common adversary, but constrained by deep-seated historical mistrust and a growing asymmetry that makes Moscow uneasy. On Iran’s nuclear program, he agreed with Valencia that China does not want it. Beijing has a structural preference for stability and is well aware that a nuclear Iran would trigger a regional arms race that would serve no one’s interest\u2014least of all China’s.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
The session closed with a Q&A segment addressing topics such as the development of pipelines between Iran and China, relations between Beijing and Moscow, and the significance of the recent rapprochement between China and India. The discussion made clear one point on which both speakers agreed: China is now an actor that cannot be left out of any account of where the international order is heading, and its behavior in each of the major conflicts of our time deserves continued careful analysis.<\/p>\n\n\n\n
Aranzazu \u00c1lvarez
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