The session, conducted in Spanish, gathered an audience interested in understanding the future of Syria following the fall of the Al Assad regime, which had been in power for decades, and the main challenges the country will face to ensure its stability.

Juan Serrat began his presentation by highlighting Syria’s uniqueness among the countries of the Middle East. After thirteen years of war, the regime of Bashar al-Assad, who had ruled for more than fifty years, unexpectedly fell due to a rebel militia incursion that took place in just eleven days. Although the Alawites (who represent only 12% of the Syrian population) have maintained power, Syria is a predominantly Sunni nation (around 75% of its population). The advance of the rebels towards Damascus met little resistance, facilitating the capture of the capital and the flight of Bashar al-Assad, who was taken to Russia.

Serrat pointed out that the shift in order in Syria coincides with a global change, leading to the rise of a tripolar imperialism, with the powers of China, the United States, and Russia taking on a more prominent role.

Due to its strategic location between Europe, Africa, and Asia, Syria was an important trading hub, especially as a strategic point along the Silk Road for centuries. Today, Syria is home to approximately 23 million people, the majority being Sunni (about 18 million), followed by Kurds (3 million), Alawites, Catholics, and Druze.

Under the regime of Hafez al-Assad (1970-2000), Syria had complex relations with its neighbors. The country never recognized the state of Israel and, as a result, remains technically at war with it. Relations with Lebanon were similarly tense, as Syria viewed Lebanon as an extension of its territory. During the Iran-Iraq war, Syria was the only Arab country to side with Iran, isolating it from many Arab nations. With Turkey, the relationship was somewhat more stable due to the «Neo-Ottomanism» that Turkey practiced to expand its influence in the successor states of the former Ottoman Empire.

In 1970, Hafez al-Assad, an air force colonel, staged a coup with the support of the Alawites and established a dictatorship based on Ba’athism, which remained in power until 2024. This political movement was key in consolidating his power and opposing peace initiatives with Israel. Hafez al-Assad did not accept the Camp David Accords, which is why they are still technically at war. Henry Kissinger famously said at the time, «The Arabs cannot wage war without Egypt and cannot achieve peace without Syria.»

Hafez al-Assad passed away in 2000 and was succeeded by his son, Bashar al-Assad, who continued the regime’s authoritarian policies. In 2005, the assassination of Rafiq Hariri, former Prime Minister of Lebanon, led to the withdrawal of Syrian forces from Lebanon after international pressure urged Syria to implement UN Security Council Resolution 1559. On May 5, 2005, the United Nations confirmed the complete withdrawal of all Syrian military forces from Lebanon, ending a 29-year military occupation.

In early 2011, the Arab Spring reached Syria with a series of protests demanding political reforms and the restoration of civil rights. This led to a brutal civil war that devastated the country and deepened regional tensions.

With the fall of Bashar al-Assad’s regime on December 8, 2024, Juan Serrat highlighted the impacts this regime change would have on the Middle East and major international powers. He especially mentioned Israel’s key role, Iran’s loss of influence in the region, and the opposing interests of the United States and Russia; the latter had been Assad’s allies up until that point. He also pointed out the growing influence of Turkey and Saudi Arabia in the reconstruction of the regional balance.

Ambassador Juan Serrat identified several challenges for Syria, including national unity. Despite the proliferation of militias in the country, all seem to accept the leadership of Al Shara, the current leader of the militias. Another key issue is the role of the Kurds, who continue to seek full autonomy in Kurdistan, with the support of Israel and the United States but in constant opposition from Turkey.

Additionally, the reconstruction of Syria’s administration and military will be crucial to ensuring stability. On a social level, Syrian citizens long for stability after a long and brutal war, and militias will need to be demobilized to achieve lasting peace.

Syria faces enormous challenges in its political and social reconstruction process but also has opportunities to redefine its future, influenced by both local and international actors. The evolution of the situation will depend on how various factions are integrated and how fair representation is ensured for all groups within the country.

Aranzazu Álvarez