The session, conducted in Spanish, gathered an audience interested in understanding the complex relationship between security in the Sahel and Europe. While current news focuses on other regions due to the war in Gaza and the Russia-Ukraine conflict, it is important not to overlook the close connection between security in the Sahel and Europe: if there is no security in the Sahel, there will be no security in Europe.

Losada began his analysis of the Sahel by addressing it from three key dimensions: geographic, institutional, and geostrategic.

Geographic: The Sahel stretches from the Atlantic Ocean to the Red Sea, separating the Sahara’s northern Africa from «greener» Africa. It is home to diverse communities and has historically been seen as a transit zone.

Institutional: Over time, various organizations and institutions have been created to address the region’s challenges. Geographically, the Niger River forms a loop that flows into Nigeria, an area historically inhabited by large civilizations, many of which have been overlooked or underestimated in Europe. Five key countries stand out in the region: Mali, Burkina Faso, Niger, Chad, and Mauritania, all of which are legacies of French decolonization. With the EU’s encouragement, the G5 Sahel was established, though it has lost relevance following alliances between some of these countries and Russia. Instead, they have formed the Alliance of the Sahel States.

Geostrategic: The crisis in Libya was the primary trigger for the current instability in the region. African leaders accuse the EU and NATO of destabilizing the area through their intervention in Libya. The situation was further aggravated by the crisis in Nigeria involving Boko Haram. Additionally, other external actors have contributed to the spread of jihadism in the region. Key countries and institutions with direct influence on the Sahel include the Maghreb, Iran, Gulf countries, Russia, Ukraine, ECOWAS (Economic Community of West African States), the European Union, and NATO.

After discussing the three key dimensions shaping the region, Ángel Losada posed the question: What are the threats in the Sahel?

Governance Crisis

Governance in the Sahel region is extremely fragile, with growing political instability affecting several of its countries. In particular, three of the five key countries have experienced coups in recent years, reflecting the vulnerability of their political systems. This instability, fueled by the lack of strong institutions, has created a cycle of violence, social unrest, and distrust in the institutions, which in turn has facilitated the rise of extremist groups. The absence of stable leadership, coupled with economic and social difficulties, has deepened the governance crisis, leading to the increasing influence of external actors who exploit the discontent to strengthen their presence in the region.

Mali is the axis and epicenter of the crisis in the Sahel. It all began in this country, and peace in the region depends on stability in Mali. In 2012, the Tuareg rebellion led to small jihadist groups, previously minor, aligning with Tuareg separatists to declare independence for the north, forming the Azawad region and taking the city of Timbuktu. The Malian government, overwhelmed by the situation, requested international help, and France intervened with Operation Serval. A peace process began with strong EU involvement, including a monitoring committee to ensure its implementation. This process also called for the restructuring of security forces and the granting of greater autonomy to the north. While the president was elected twice, the lack of substantive change and growing dissatisfaction among the population led to a coup. The first, in 2020, was not overtly anti-Western, but the second, in 2021, was, with support from the Wagner group. At that point, the EU stated that Mali had to choose between its military government and the presence of European forces. The country chose Russia, left the G5, and expelled French forces. This decision contributed to a dynamic of growing instability in the region, which spread to other countries like Chad. In Chad, the assassination of the head of state also had a profound impact on the Sahel situation. In response, Chadians expelled French troops, intensifying the perception of growing opposition to the West in the region.

Burkina Faso experienced two coups in a short period, with the second, in 2022, being explicitly anti-Western. The military leaders who took power denounced the inefficiency of security policies and the failure in the fight against jihadist groups. After the coup, Burkina Faso began distancing itself from its traditional alliances with the West and sought closer relations with actors such as Russia.

Niger underwent a peaceful transition from one civilian head of state to another but also experienced a coup in 2023, supported by groups close to Russia. During this coup, military authorities expelled not only the French but also the Americans. The growing influence of Russia in the region, backed by the Wagner group, has led several Sahel countries to become disillusioned with Western powers. Niger, which had been an important ally in the fight against terrorism, is now part of this shift.

Mauritania has faced enormous migratory pressure, with large refugee camps coming from the Sahel region. Mauritania finds itself in a delicate situation as, while its president is pro-Western, it is also a deeply Islamic society with strong resistance to colonialism, a sentiment shared by much of Africa. It also faces internal challenges arising from political and social tensions, which could open opportunities for external instability.

The oxygen of terrorism is the state’s vacuum, emphasized Ángel Losada. A vacuum that jihadist groups have taken advantage of, using ancestral conflicts and instability to create chaos and establish themselves in the Sahel region. In this context, the Wagner group is playing a crucial role, actively intervening and expanding its influence. Meanwhile, the West, primarily represented by the EU, is losing ground, especially after the growing disillusionment of Sahel countries with its policies. The situation is complicated by a demographic phenomenon: the region’s predominantly young population is constantly growing, posing a huge challenge for the future. If development opportunities are not provided, this population will seek to migrate to Europe, potentially exacerbating the migration crisis.

The Sahel is also facing a severe humanitarian crisis. Countries like Mauritania, which hosts a large number of refugees, are under massive migratory pressure, directly affecting Europe, particularly countries like Spain. The European response, although pioneering in addressing the crisis since 2011 with a security and development strategy, has been insufficient. Training missions and security policies have been ineffective, and the lack of a solid commitment has led to a distancing of the region from the West. This distancing has been exploited by countries like Russia, which have not only influenced local governments but also positioned themselves as key players in the region, fueling an anti-Western discourse that resonates deeply in many Sahel nations. This interventionism responds not only to geopolitical interests but also to economic motives, as the Sahel is rich in natural resources like gold and rare earth elements.

China, with a primarily economic focus, has reached key agreements, such as uranium exploitation in Niger, a crucial resource for nuclear energy development. Iran has also shown interest in securing control over strategic resources like uranium in the region. The presence of these new actors has further transformed the Sahel’s dynamics, where the West has been displaced and replaced by powers that, while interested in natural resources, also benefit from the growing instability.

The solution to this crisis is complex. First, it is essential to recognize that anti-colonial and anti-Western discourse has become the dominant narrative in the region. However, imposing a Western democratic system in countries like Mali, without considering their history and culture, has not worked. Local traditions, the power of elders, and social structures must be respected, and the concept of democracy must be adapted to each country’s realities. Moreover, the colonial past continues to leave scars, and this is where Spain has a unique opportunity to offer a different perspective.

The European Union must coordinate more effectively, overcoming its internal divisions and collaborating coherently with other international actors. Ultimately, the key lies in the principle of ownership: policies must be seen as their own by local communities in order to be sustainable. The Sahel needs to lead its own future, with Western support, but not through external interventions, but by working together.

Ángel Losada concluded his intervention by quoting Federica Mogherini: «We should not work for Africa, we should work with Africa.»

Sofía Gómez
Communication Assistant, INCIPE