The session was conducted in Spanish and brought together an audience interested in understanding the implications of a second Trump administration on international trade. For this purpose, we had the participation of Alfredo Bonet, independent advisor and Secretary of State for Foreign Trade (2010-2012), among others. During the session, Alfredo Bonet provided a detailed analysis of the reasons behind the United States’ return to protectionism. The trade measures adopted during the two previous administrations were examined to identify possible trends in Trump’s trade policy during his second term.

Alfredo Bonet began his presentation with a review of the factors that drove globalization from its origins after World War II, highlighting the creation of the General Agreement on Tariffs and Trade (GATT) and the reduction of trade and investment restrictions. These elements facilitated the development of global value chains and triggered geopolitical changes such as the collapse of the USSR and China’s market-oriented reforms. Bonet noted that, since the 1960s, global production grew steadily, while international trade expanded at a much faster pace, doubling the growth of production from the 1970s onward. This dynamism generated decades of economic cooperation, culminating in the period of greatest global growth until the 2008-2009 crisis.

The United States was the principal architect of the multilateral institutions created after World War II, including the GATT (1948), which later evolved into the World Trade Organization (WTO) in 1995. This transition transformed the agreement into a consolidated international organization upholding the basic principles of its predecessor. However, this model peaked in 2008 when trade accounted for 64% of global GDP. From 2009, global trade began to decline, and although recovery was relatively quick, trade has never surpassed 50% of global GDP since. A structural shift occurred where global trade now grows at rates similar to global production. This crisis had multiple causes, including China’s rise, which challenged free-market orthodoxy by proposing an alternative growth path for developing countries; the end of competition-free relations between major powers; and the increasing inclusion of political factors in trade agreements. Furthermore, the crisis marked the beginning of a gradual return to protectionism, with a rise in import restrictions and, more recently, export restrictions, which were almost nonexistent a decade ago.

All these factors have contributed to a progressive trend toward protectionism that persists to this day. The redistribution of global power has shifted the balance among nations, notably in the case of the U.S., whose economic dominance has significantly declined due to China’s ascent.

In this context, Alfredo Bonet emphasized that understanding the future trends in Donald Trump’s trade policy during his second term requires analyzing his previous trade policies. Along these lines, Bonet reviewed the trade measures implemented during Trump’s first term (2016-2020), which marked a significant departure from previous policies. Trump viewed trade policy as a tool to address the “permanent trade war” faced by the U.S. He criticized prior trade agreements for accelerating the country’s economic decline and accused nations with large bilateral trade surpluses of unfair trade practices. These critiques led to a protectionist trade policy focused on reducing the trade deficit, strengthening domestic industry, and prioritizing American interests. Among his actions, Bonet highlighted the imposition of progressive tariffs on Chinese imports worth $380 billion; investigations into China’s practices regarding intellectual property, technology, and innovation; the use of the GATT’s national security clause to impose tariffs on specific industries’ imports from allied countries; sanctions on Chinese telecommunications manufacturers; and export restrictions on key technologies such as semiconductors.

These measures reduced Chinese exports to the U.S. and decreased the U.S. trade deficit, although they increased domestic consumer taxes and negatively impacted industries reliant on imports. Overall, these actions neither facilitated more favorable trade agreements nor improved national security.

Under the Biden administration (2021-2024), despite openly criticizing Trump’s trade policy, a similar economic nationalism approach was adopted, albeit with a less confrontational tone. The Biden administration prioritized supply chain resilience in strategic sectors; the revival of industrial prominence and fair economic growth for American workers; rapid decarbonization and energy transition; and economic and military containment of China. Biden’s trade strategy, described as the “new Washington consensus,” combined a renewed industrial strategy, sectoral agreements with economic allies, and measures to curb China’s rise. Biden retained most of Trump’s tariffs and even introduced new ones in 2024 targeting Chinese semiconductors and electric vehicles. Additionally, this administration pioneered the use of trade policy as a tool to achieve non-trade objectives.

These policies further reduced U.S.-China trade, creating opportunities for other countries to fill the market void left by the decline in Chinese imports to the U.S. However, they also triggered retaliatory measures from China, primarily tariffs on U.S. imports.

Finally, Bonet assessed the prospects of Trump’s trade policy in his new term. Appointments in his administration suggest that the new government will take a more radical approach, maintaining protectionism and unilateralism as central pillars of its trade policy. During his electoral campaign, Trump proposed tariffs of 60% on Chinese products, 25% on Mexican and Canadian goods, and 10% to 20% on goods from the rest of the world. The electoral mandate to raise tariffs is clear, and control of Congress and the Senate supports the feasibility of implementing these measures, which could significantly impact key trading partners like Mexico, where 83% of exports depend on the U.S. Bonet also highlighted the consequences of this trade policy for the European Union, which will need to prepare a retaliatory strategy. The relationship with China will also be affected, as a failed negotiation attempt could spark a new trade war.

The session concluded with a debate where participants had the opportunity to ask questions about the topics discussed. This exchange underscored the importance of understanding the immediate and long-term effects of the new Trump administration’s trade policies.

Lucía Rodríguez