During this conference, we had the opportunity to organize two roundtable discussions. The first, titled Forgotten Conflicts in the African Continent, was moderated by Vicente Garrido, Director General of INCIPE. The panelists included José Antonio Bordallo, former Ambassador of Spain to Zaire (1996-1997), the Democratic Republic of the Congo (1997-2000), and Libya (2014-2017); Manuel Salazar Palma, former Ambassador of Spain to Ethiopia and the African Union (2020-2023); Colonel Carlos Latorre, geopolitical analyst at the General Secretariat of Defense Policy, Ministry of Defense, and military observer for United Nations Missions in Ethiopia/Eritrea (UNMEE) and the Democratic Republic of the Congo (MONUC); and María Fuentenebro, Senior Expert at the United Nations on humanitarian affairs, peace, and security.
The second roundtable, titled Forgotten Conflicts in Asia: The Case of Myanmar, was moderated by Colonel José Luis Calvo, Director of the Security and Defense Coordination and Studies Division at the General Secretariat of Defense Policy, Ministry of Defense. The panelists included Emilio de Miguel, Director of the Casa Asia Center in Madrid and former Ambassador of Spain to Thailand, with concurrent accreditation in Cambodia, Laos, and the Union of Myanmar (2017-2021); Captain Eduardo Matres, geopolitical analyst at the General Secretariat of Defense Policy, Ministry of Defense; and Antonio Ponce, freelance reporter covering armed conflicts and humanitarian crises.
Ricardo Díez-Hochleitner, Secretary General of INCIPE, highlighted how the Eurocentric perspective influences the perception of conflicts, labeling as «forgotten» those that are not covered by the media or studied in our surroundings, often due to their geographic remoteness or lack of direct impact on local interests. However, the rise of nearby conflicts, such as in Ukraine and the Middle East, has recently intensified this neglect. Díez-Hochleitner emphasizes the global escalation of violence in recent years: according to UNHCR data, one in six people is currently at risk of conflict, and in 2024, war deaths increased by 40% compared to the previous year. Additionally, many wars no longer end in negotiations but in clear victories or defeats, leaving unresolved issues and latent tensions.
For his part, the Director General of Defense Policy, Lieutenant General Fernando López del Pozo, underscores the interconnectedness of current conflicts, pointing out that events in one area can affect other regions, making even «forgotten» conflicts relevant to Europe. He also questions whether we can truly talk about forgotten conflicts, given that many, though less visible, have significant consequences. Lieutenant General López del Pozo notes that some conflicts remain in a «frozen» or low-intensity state, or simply do not capture media attention due to their limited economic or geopolitical relevance. This «freezing» can result in a discreet disappearance of the problem or an escalation in the future. According to the Director General of Defense Policy, while the media focus on highlighting conflicts of economic or strategic interest, giving visibility to forgotten conflicts also favors their potential resolution. Finally, he previews some of the specific cases that the roundtables will address.
Forgotten Conflicts in the African Continent
During the first panel, titled Forgotten Conflicts in the African Continent, Spain’s ambassador to Zaire (1996-1997), the Democratic Republic of Congo (1997-2000), and Libya (2014-2017), José Bordallo, shared his experience in the Democratic Republic of Congo, highlighting the «resource curse» that defines its history: despite its vast mineral wealth, the country remains trapped in poverty. He explained how this contrast has deep roots, reviewing the history of the Congo from its brutal exploitation as the personal property of King Leopold II of Belgium, through its colonial period, and the internal conflicts and coups following independence, up to the present context.
In his intervention, Manuel Salazar Palma, Spain’s ambassador to Ethiopia and the African Union (2020-2023), emphasized that Africa is a continent with numerous recurring conflicts, which explains why 60% of the UN Security Council’s interventions are dedicated to this region. He focused his analysis on the Horn of Africa, particularly Ethiopia, a key country for the stability of this strategic area, crossed by maritime routes, oil pipelines, and vital submarine cables for global trade.
Ethiopia, the only African country never colonized, faces a complex conflict and post-conflict scenario: although it has achieved a period of relative peace in the north, violent tensions persist in the Amara and Oromia regions. The loss of its outlet to the sea, which now depends on an agreement with Djibouti, is a source of national «trauma,» especially among the Ethiopian political class. In addition, Ethiopia faces border tensions with Somalia, South Sudan, Eritrea, and Kenya, making it difficult to guarantee stability due to the porosity of its borders. Finally, the speaker emphasized the importance of the relationship with Egypt regarding the Grand Ethiopian Renaissance Dam.
In his intervention, Colonel Carlos Latorre, a geopolitical analyst at the General Secretariat for Defense Policy in the Ministry of Defense and a military observer of the United Nations Missions in Ethiopia/Eritrea (UNMEE) and the Democratic Republic of Congo (MONUC), focused on explaining the conflicts both in Ethiopia and the Congo. Regarding Ethiopia and Eritrea, he explained that the conflict began in 1998 due to border disputes, which led the UN to establish a demilitarized zone that was not implemented until 2008. In 2018, after years of tension, diplomatic relations between both states were restored, and the disputed strip was ceded to Eritrea. This led to discontent among the Tigray ethnic group and triggered an internal revolt in Ethiopia. Latorre highlighted the willingness of both nations to reach an understanding. In contrast, in the Congo, insecurity persists, fueled by the illegal exploitation of resources like coltan, within the context of the technological revolution. Since 2004, the UN has focused on the eastern part of the country, where Rwanda’s influence affects the stability of the Great Lakes region. Latorre pointed out that the UN mission is developing a transition plan for the Congolese army to take over security, withdrawing from the Kivu regions and demilitarizing Ituri. Latorre concluded that, while in Ethiopia and Eritrea, the conflict has evolved from territorial disputes to internal ethnic struggles, in the Congo, conflict seems to be constant and persistent.
To conclude the interventions of the first panel, María Fuentenebro, a senior UN expert in humanitarian affairs, peace, and security, offered the United Nations’ perspective, focusing on the conflict between Sudan and South Sudan. Fuentenebro highlighted the setbacks in the peace process since April 2023. She emphasized that the UN’s peace and security pillar and its humanitarian component have faced significant budget cuts since the end of 2023, which has led to a resurgence of conflicts that previously showed signs of stabilization. This budget reduction has forced the closure of peace missions, such as MONUSCO in the Congo, even when conditions on the ground are not favorable for this. Moreover, the reduction in personnel means that officers are taking on multiple responsibilities, affecting specialization and effectiveness in various mission areas.
Fuentenebro warned that these cuts increase uncertainty about the future structure and sustainability of UN missions, as the focus on long-term peace is being lost. She pointed out the need to strengthen the link between humanitarian aid and sustainable development in contexts of lasting peace, a connection that, according to her, has weakened recently.
After the speakers’ interventions, a Q&A session was held, where both in-person and virtual participants could address various aspects discussed during the panel. This exchange of ideas and perspectives allowed for a broader shared knowledge and enriched the discussion on forgotten conflicts in Africa before the session was concluded.
Forgotten Conflicts in Asia: The Case of Myanmar
The second roundtable, titled Forgotten Conflicts in Asia: The Case of Myanmar, focused on analyzing the specific Burmese conflict. The first to speak was Emilio de Miguel, director of the Casa de Asia Center in Madrid and Spain’s ambassador to Thailand, with concurrent responsibilities in Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar (2017-2021). He highlighted the importance of the Tatmadaw (the Burmese army) and the center-periphery dynamics in understanding the conflict. The Tatmadaw, which originated in the 30th thakins, has been in conflict with various ethnic minorities since Myanmar’s independence in 1947. Despite brief periods of democratization driven by military governments, such as the 2008 constitution, the 2021 coup d’état revealed the persistent tensions with the main opposition party, the National League for Democracy.
De Miguel also emphasized the impact of British colonization on the formation of ethnic identities, where fluid divisions were classified according to rigid standards. Additionally, the British governed the Bamar areas directly, while they used traditional chieftaincies in the peripheral regions, creating disparities in the governance system after Myanmar’s independence. This center-periphery dynamic has only worsened since then.
In his speech, CN Eduardo Matres, geopolitical analyst at the General Secretariat of Defense Policy in the Ministry of Defense, analyzed the situation in Myanmar following the 2021 coup, where opposition to the Tatmadaw has grown significantly, leading to the formation of at least 15 armies and the creation of the People’s Defense Forces by the democratic opposition. Matres noted that not all opposition factions share a unified vision for the country’s future; factions in the north tend to lean toward a more authoritarian approach, while those in the southeast are more inclined toward a federal democratic model. After a year and a half of stagnation in the conflict, in October 2023, a coordinated offensive by three armies strengthened the rebels’ position. Regarding the conflict’s effects, the speaker highlighted its devastating economic impact. Furthermore, the war has diminished the country’s workforce. Rebel groups have taken control of several border cities, facilitating illicit trafficking, especially of opium. CN Matres concluded by mentioning the influence of major international actors such as China, the United States, Russia, ASEAN, and the European Union, who play complex roles in this conflict.
Antonio Ponce, freelance reporter on armed conflicts and humanitarian crises, closed the second roundtable by focusing on the serious internal and external challenges Myanmar faces in the current humanitarian crisis context. Among the internal challenges, he highlighted the existence of approximately 3.5 million internally displaced persons. Additionally, the country’s historically deficient infrastructure has been severely deteriorated due to the Tatmadaw’s «scorched earth» strategy, which turns civilian settlements into military targets. This lack of infrastructure is exacerbated by the country’s orography and geography, making it difficult to access and distribute humanitarian aid. Furthermore, an ethnic cleansing policy is observable through satellite images, revealing the magnitude of the problem. Regarding external challenges, Ponce mentioned the legal abandonment of Myanmar refugees, as most ASEAN countries do not recognize their status. He also pointed out that countries such as China, Thailand, and Bangladesh show sympathy toward the military junta, with few effective sanctions that could pressure a change in policies. This limited commitment extends to international political organizations, which have also been ineffective in their response.
Finally, Antonio Ponce offered several recommendations to improve the humanitarian situation in Myanmar: increasing international awareness and visibility of the conflict, implementing effective sanctions on both weapons and economic aspects, and fostering greater political commitment from international actors.
At the end of the speakers’ interventions, the second debate of the session began, where both in-person and virtual participants posed their questions to the speakers of this second roundtable.
Closing remarks
For the closing of this seminar, the Director General of INCIPE, Vicente Garrido, and the Director of the Division of Coordination and Security and Defense Studies at the General Secretariat of Defense Policy in the Ministry of Defense, José Luis Calvo, offered a few words, highlighting the conclusions of the meeting.
Lucía Rodríguez