Isidro González began his intervention by emphasizing that the war in Sudan is the Great Forgotten War, representing the world’s largest humanitarian crisis with more than ten million displaced people. «This war affects Europe and, therefore, Spain,» stated the ambassador. The war is having a significant economic impact, halving Egypt’s revenue from the use of the Suez Canal and increasing the cost of imports brought by commercial ships.

«The international community believes there can be no winner,» González Afonso affirmed. Neither of the sides possesses the necessary characteristics to declare victory. «We are facing a situation that closely resembles Libya’s,» the ambassador added. Sudan is divided into two parts: one controlled by the militia and the other by the army. The militia-controlled areas include the main productive regions, including much of the country’s capital, Khartoum.

According to González Afonso, ceasefire attempts have failed. The United States and Saudi Arabia have tried to initiate negotiations between the warring parties since the outbreak of the conflict, but this has not happened, which shows how polarized the sides are. In 2019, the Sudanese revolution ended the Islamist dictatorship of Omar al-Bashir, leading to a civil government in coalition with the military. However, in October 2021, both the president and the vice president staged a coup, removing the civilian government from power, the ambassador explained.

Between October 2021 and April 15, 2023, Sudanese civil society witnessed numerous events, expressing their desire to resume the democratic transition process, despite the high cost of living. The war in Sudan broke out just as negotiations were about to conclude, in which the military were to hand over power to civilians, thus restoring the democratic transition. This would have allowed Sudan to become the first successful example of the so-called Arab Spring, according to González Afonso.

After the outbreak of the conflict in the country, the Vienna Convention on the protection of diplomatic and consular premises was not respected. From the first day of the war, both embassy offices and ambassadors’ residences became targets. However, Ambassador Isidro González Afonso highlights the excellent work done by the Spanish army in evacuating Spanish diplomatic personnel alongside other European and Latin American citizens.

Both warring sides have international support. The army is backed by Egypt, Saudi Arabia, and Qatar, while the Rapid Support Militia has strong backing from the United Arab Emirates, according to many international analysts. The involvement of Iran and Russia supporting the army completely changes the landscape of the war. In exchange for their support, Russia would have the right to establish a logistics base on the Red Sea coast.

In terms of natural resources, Sudan is Africa’s third-largest gold producer, as well as the breadbasket of the Gulf countries. For Europe, the fact that it is a large country with a vast coast on the Red Sea, through which a third of the trade reaching Europe passes, is of vital importance. However, this route has been affected due to the conflict in Yemen with the Houthis, and it could worsen if the war continues to spread and reaches the eastern part of the country, i.e., the Red Sea coast.

«The international community has not managed to stop the war so far,» the ambassador stated. However, other international actors are playing a significant role, such as the African Union, which is attempting to form a civil front, and the UN, which was expelled by the Sudanese government two months after the conflict began. Additionally, the Arab League has held meetings and coordinated efforts. Ambassador González Afonso highlighted Egypt’s role, which is calling a meeting with Sudanese civilians on July 6 and 7. The main pro-democracy Sudanese platform, led by the former civil minister, is expected to participate in this meeting. The goal of this meeting, according to the ambassador, is to pressure the warring parties to end the war.

Sudanese civil society managed to overthrow dictator Omar al-Bashir, who had been in power for 25 years, emphasized the ambassador. The outlook is concerning; the fact that it is a forgotten war does not diminish its significance. What is happening in Sudan can destabilize the entire Horn of Africa and create tensions in Gaza. The conflict in Sudan is absorbing the attention of many neighboring countries, which could allow radical ideological groups to enter the country.

After Isidro González Afonso’s intervention, a debate was opened in which participants raised questions about the humanitarian crisis, regional destabilization, the evacuation of Khartoum, economic implications, relations between the contenders and Russia, natural resources, terrorism, NGOs, military strategies, the food crisis, and the work of the Spanish embassy.

Palmira Reboto