The current consolidation of Iran in the regional stage is the result of the convergence of two factors. On one hand, the behavior patterns that Iran has chosen to follow, and on the other, the current operational scenarios throughout the Middle East. As a result of both, Iran has managed to increase its level of activity in the field of international relations, taking advantage of the processes it has been involved in. An example of this is the war with Iraq, where the ability to act and influence on the ground, along with the current Iraqi process, are favorable to its interests. – Nicole Pretell

Thanks to this development of internal skills and external processes, Iran has learned to operate in both the irregular and regular dimensions of defense as a hybrid. Among its primary objectives are both the fall of Israel and the disruption of Middle East peace processes – especially Palestinian peace initiatives. Due to this, throughout the 1990s, Iran played the role of a catalyst for jihadist groups throughout the region and strengthened its Armed Forces.

Continuing this path, in the 2000s, the 9/11 terrorist attack manifested Iran’s hostility toward the West in general and the United States in particular. Marking a turning point, the attack provoked a seditious cooperation that still shapes the relations between the two regions. Other events that would define the present decade for Iran were, first, the favorable shift toward Islamists in Turkey, diluting the alliance with Israel; and second, the Arab uprisings. Both the Cedar Revolution of 2005 in Lebanon and the Green Revolution of 2009 in Iran created confusion, leading to a scenario in which Iran has effectively capitalized on its foreign and domestic policies.

With peace processes blocked, Iran’s role in countries like Syria and Yemen has facilitated the weakening of the United States’ presence. In Syria, Iran’s goal is also to reduce Israeli power and Western presence in the area. This is why it plays the role of coordinating Shiite forces, and it was also the reason General Soleimani invited Russia to intervene in the country. On the other hand, its intervention in Yemen has been more cautious than in Iraq, but equally significant, as it declares war against Saudi Arabia, a U.S. ally. With the elimination of General Soleimani, years of discomfort are predicted for Iran. With the nuclear agreement on the table due to the U.S. withdrawal from it and subsequent violations by Iran, the power of the United States to persuade other countries to apply sanctions (such as China, which sources from Iran) will be key in the months to come.

Nicole Pretell
Communication Assistant, INCIPE