On May 13, 2025, INCIPE held a virtual session titled “How Far Can Defense Spending Go in the EU?” featuring Ambassador Enrique Viguera. Ambassador Viguera has served as Director of the Diplomatic School and as Spain’s ambassador to countries such as Greece, Australia, and Sweden. The session was introduced by INCIPE’s Secretary General, Ricardo Díez-Hochleitner, and moderated by the Director General, Vicente Garrido.

The session, held in Spanish, brought together an audience interested in understanding the current state of EU mechanisms and funding to address the rise in defence spending, in a context marked by the goal of achieving greater strategic autonomy.

During his presentation, Ambassador Viguera highlighted the sharp increase in European military spending in recent years, largely driven by Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. As an example, he noted that Ukraine’s defence budget rose from €1 billion in 2022 to €35 billion in 2024, amounting to 34% of the country’s GDP—roughly equivalent to half of Russia’s budgetary effort.

Despite this upward trend in spending by the EU and its Member States, Viguera pointed to several structural limitations, including the absence of a clearly defined European identity in security and defence, and the fragmentation of the defence industry, which hinders joint action and interoperability among European armed forces. These challenges are compounded by the legal and budgetary constraints imposed by the Treaty on European Union (TEU). Specifically, Article 41.2 of the TEU prohibits the allocation of common EU funds to cover military operations, while the EU’s budget ceiling—set at 1% of Gross National Income—further limits its financial flexibility.

Against this backdrop, the Ambassador reviewed the EU’s key institutional and strategic milestones, from the launch of the Common Foreign and Security Policy (CFSP) in 1999 to the adoption of the Strategic Compass in 2022, including the European Security Strategy (2003) and the Global Strategy (2016). He also underscored the relevance of mechanisms such as constructive abstention, which allows Member States to refrain from blocking collective decisions on defence matters.

On the financing side, Ambassador Viguera identified the European Defence Fund as a key tool, with a total budget of €13 billion for the 2021–2027 period, allocated to research (€4.1 billion) and industrial development (€8.9 billion). In addition, other specific budget lines fall under Heading 5 of the EU budget, including:

  • Military mobility, with €1.69 billion to improve transport and infrastructure in line with military requirements;
  • European Defence Industry Reinforcement through common Procurement Act (EDIRPA), designed to coordinate joint procurement to replenish national stockpiles;
  • Act in Support of Ammunition Production (ASAP), with a €500 million budget (2023–2025) to increase ammunition and missile production, ensuring supplies for Ukraine and replenishing EU reserves.

According to current estimates, these instruments total €7.575 billion between 2021 and 2025, representing roughly half of all European defence funding under the current Multiannual Financial Framework (2021–2027).

Other key initiatives mentioned included:

  • Permanent Structured Cooperation (PESCO), a mechanism for structured collaboration among Member States with higher capabilities;
  • European Defence Industry Programme (EDIP), which encompasses both EDIRPA and ASAP;
  • Fund to Accelerate the Transformation of Defence Supply Chains (FAST), aimed at facilitating access to finance for SMEs and mid-cap companies working to industrialise defence technologies;
  • Ukraine Assistance Fund, designed to align the country’s defence industry with EU standards.

The role of the European Peace Facility, initially endowed with €5.69 billion for 2021–2027 and later expanded following the outbreak of war in Ukraine through a dedicated fund for the country, was also highlighted.

Most recently, the European Commission has proposed a new strategic framework through the European Defence White Paper, intended to address persistent investment gaps and consolidate a credible deterrent posture. In this context, the ReArm Readiness 2030 Plan, approved by the European Council in March 2025, aims to mobilise up to €800 billion through five financial pillars:

  1. Security Action for Europe (SAFE), with €150 billion earmarked for investment in military capabilities;
  2. Escape clause from the Stability and Growth Pact, allowing for greater spending flexibility;
  3. Cohesion funds, redirected to support the defence industry;
  4. Increased lending by the European Investment Bank, doubling credit available for the defence sector;
  5. Greater mobilisation of private capital, driven by the banking union and capital markets union.

In conclusion, Ambassador Viguera stated that the surge in European military spending since 2022 has been significant and must be sustained in order to offset a gradual decline in U.S. support. In his view, if legal and political barriers can be overcome, the EU defence budget could reach €500 billion in the next Multiannual Financial Framework (2028–2034).

The session concluded with a lively discussion, addressing issues such as the possibility of establishing a European army, the figure of a Unified Command, and the evolving relationship between the EU and NATO in the field of defence.

Marina Urizarna
Communication Assistant, INCIPE